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ABSTRACT As the catalogue of gravitational-wave transients grows, several entries appear ‘exceptional’ within the population. Tipping the scales with a total mass of $$\sim 150 \,{\rm M}_\odot$$, GW190521 likely contained black holes in the pair-instability mass gap. The event GW190814, meanwhile, is unusual for its extreme mass ratio and the mass of its secondary component. A growing model-building industry has emerged to provide explanations for such exceptional events, and Bayesian model selection is frequently used to determine the most informative model. However, Bayesian methods can only take us so far. They provide no answer to the question: does our model provide an adequate explanation for exceptional events in the data? If none of the models we are testing provide an adequate explanation, then it is not enough to simply rank our existing models – we need new ones. In this paper, we introduce a method to answer this question with a frequentist p-value. We apply the method to different models that have been suggested to explain the unusually massive event GW190521: hierarchical mergers in active galactic nuclei and globular clusters. We show that some (but not all) of these models provide adequate explanations for exceptionally massive events like GW190521. 

It has become increasingly useful to answer questions in gravitational-wave astronomy using transdimensional models where the number of free parameters can be varied depending on the complexity required to fit the data. Given the growing interest in transdimensional inference, we introduce a new package for the Bayesian inference Library (Bilby) called tBilby. The tBilby package allows users to set up transdimensional inference calculations using the existing Bilby architecture with off-the-shelf nested samplers and/or Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Transdimensional models are particularly helpful when we seek to test theoretically uncertain predictions described by phenomenological models. For example, bursts of gravitational waves can be modelled using a superposition of N wavelets where N is itself a free parameter. Short pulses are modelled with small values of N whereas longer, more complicated signals are represented with a large number of wavelets stitched together. Other transdimensional models have found use describing instrumental noise and the population properties of gravitational-wave sources. We provide a few demonstrations of tBilby, including fitting the gravitational-wave signal GW150914 with a superposition of N sine-Gaussian wavelets. We outline our plans to further develop the tbilby code suite for a broader range of transdimensional problems. 

General relativity (GR) has proven to be a highly successful theory of gravity since its inception. The theory has thrivingly passed numerous experimental tests, predominantly in weak gravity, low relative speeds, and linear regimes, but also in the strong-field and very low-speed regimes with binary pulsars. Observable gravitational waves (GWs) originate from regions of spacetime where gravity is extremely strong, making them a unique tool for testing GR, in previously inaccessible regions of large curvature, relativistic speeds, and strong gravity. Since their first detection, GWs have been extensively used to test GR, but no deviations have been found so far. Given GR’s tremendous success in explaining current astronomical observations and laboratory experiments, accepting any deviation from it requires a very high level of statistical confidence and consistency of the deviation across GW sources. In this paper, we compile a comprehensive list of potential causes that can lead to a false identification of a GR violation in standard tests of GR on data from current and future ground-based GW detectors. These causes include detector noise, signal overlaps, gaps in the data, detector calibration, source model inaccuracy, missing physics in the source and in the underlying environment model, source misidentification, and mismodeling of the astrophysical population. We also provide a rough estimate of when each of these causes will become important for tests of GR for different detector sensitivities. We argue that each of these causes should be thoroughly investigated, quantified, and ruled out before claiming a GR violation in GW observations. 

Abstract Ultralight bosons are a proposed solution to outstanding problems in cosmology and particle physics: they provide a dark-matter candidate while potentially explaining the strong charge-parity problem. If they exist, ultralight bosons can interact with black holes through the superradiant instability. In this work we explore the consequences of this instability on the evolution of hierarchical black holes within dense stellar clusters. By reducing the spin of individual black holes, superradiance reduces the recoil velocity of merging binary black holes, which, in turn, increases the retention fraction of hierarchical merger remnants. We show that the existence of ultralight bosons with mass 2 × 10 −14 ≲ μ /eV ≲ 2 × 10 −13 would lead to an increased rate of hierarchical black hole mergers in nuclear star clusters. An ultralight boson in this energy range would result in up to ≈60% more present-day nuclear star clusters supporting hierarchical growth. The presence of an ultralight boson can also double the rate of intermediate-mass black hole mergers to ≈0.08 Gpc −3 yr −1 in the local universe. These results imply that a select range of ultralight boson masses can have far-reaching consequences for the population of black holes in dense stellar environments. Future studies into black hole cluster populations and the spin distribution of hierarchically formed black holes will test this scenario. 

Abstract Orbital eccentricity is one of the most robust discriminators for distinguishing between dynamical and isolated formation scenarios of binary black hole mergers using gravitational-wave observatories such as LIGO and Virgo. Using state-of-the-art cluster models, we show how selection effects impact the detectable distribution of eccentric mergers from clusters. We show that the observation (or lack thereof) of eccentric binary black hole mergers can significantly constrain the fraction of detectable systems that originate from dynamical environments, such as dense star clusters. After roughly 150 observations, observing no eccentric binary signals would indicate that clusters cannot make up the majority of the merging binary black hole population in the local universe (95% credibility). However, if dense star clusters dominate the rate of eccentric mergers and a single system is confirmed to be measurably eccentric in the first and second gravitational-wave transient catalogs, clusters must account for at least 14% of detectable binary black hole mergers. The constraints on the fraction of detectable systems from dense star clusters become significantly tighter as the number of eccentric observations grows and will be constrained to within 0.5 dex once 10 eccentric binary black holes are observed.